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Q2 Outlook: Intermarket Trends Investors Should WatchAs Q2 begins, stocks show early gains but underlying intermarket signals remain mixed with elevated VIX levels. The S&P 500 faces key technical resistance at the 200-day moving average and 6174 Fibonacci level. Treasury yields consolidate in a symmetrical triangle pattern near 4%, while commodities remain firm with oil near $100/barrel. The dollar shows signs of a false breakout, and geopolitical tensions around Iran remain a key macro wildcard affecting energy prices.Investing.com · Apr 2, 2026

Market Inflation Bets Soar As 10-Year Breakeven Rate Hits 16-Month Peak: It Will 'Slow Federal Reserve Policy Rate Cuts'The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has surged to its highest level since October 2023, signaling mounting investor concerns over more persistent price pressures. Rising tariffs and reduced competition could lead to higher consumer prices, potentially slowing Federal Reserve policy rate cuts.Benzinga · Feb 4, 2025

Why Trump's Boost To Treasury Yields, Inflation Expectations May Weaken Fed's Efforts To Cut Interest RatesThe return of Donald Trump to the White House is expected to increase the federal deficit and inflation, leading to a surge in Treasury yields. This could undermine the Federal Reserve's efforts to cut interest rates, as rising bond yields reverse the central bank's attempts to ease financial conditions.Benzinga · Nov 7, 2024

November Fed Rate Cut In Jeopardy: 12 Reasons Veteran Trader Expects A Hold As Strong Data, Rising Oil Prices Shuffle The DeckStrong U.S. economic data and surging oil prices are reshaping market expectations for the Federal Reserve's November meeting, with traders now considering a potential hold on rate cuts instead of an expected 50-basis-point cut.Benzinga · Oct 7, 2024

US Budget Crunch: CBO Warns Federal Interest Costs Now Higher Than Defense Spending, Deficits To Remain Above 5.5% Until 2034The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is once again sounding the alarm on the rising federal deficit, highlighting a growing financial strain for the U.S. government. Escalating interest costs are set to outpace defense spending for the first time. This trend is expected to keep budget deficits at or above 5.5% of GDP through 2034. In CBO’s latest June projections revealed Tuesday: The federal deficit is expected to rise to $1.9 trillion (6.7% of GDP) for fiscal-year 2024 This marks a solid increase from its February estimate of $1.5 trillion (5.4% of GDP). The updated deficit projection of $1.9 trillion for 2024 is also a significant jump from the $1.7 trillion deficit recorded last fiscal year; it represents 6.3% of GDP. The deficit is expected to climb to $2.9 trillion by 2034, $300 billion more than the previous baseline. By the end of 2034, the CBO projects that debt held by the public will total $50.7 trillion — $2.4 trillion more than previously estimated. This will equal 122% of GDP, up from the February projection of 116% of GDP. Chart: US Budget Deficits Runs Way Wider Than Its Post-War Average A May CBO report estimated that extending provisions of former President Donald Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would increase deficits by nearly $5 trillion into 2034. According ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 19, 2024

Treasury Yields Head To 'Danger Zone': Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For MarketsYields on the 10-year Treasury note have ascended to a striking 4.70% this month, the highest mark since early November 2023 amid a toxic mix of higher inflation, a stubbornly resilient economy and revised expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts. Adding to the unease, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated the latest economic data does not bolster confidence that inflation will converge towards the Fed’s 2% target soon. The bond market strain is also reflected in the performance of related instruments, such as the US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN), which is down by 2.9% for April, making it the most challenging month since September 2023. Longer-dated Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Apr 18, 2024

Strong Data Dampens Rate Cut Expectations, Lifts Dollar And Spurs Treasury Yields: Thursday's Economic DigestThe dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have reached highs not seen in over a month, driven by the ongoing resilience of the American economy, as evidenced by the release of generally better-than-expected data. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of major currencies, edged slightly higher to approach 103.52 on Thursday. The yield on a 10-year Treasury Note, whose performance is tracked by the U.S. Treasury Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN), briefly reached 4.13%, hitting its highest levels since Dec. 13. Market-implied probabilities of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March hovered at around 55%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, equalling to 13 basis points priced in. Market rate cut expectations are slightly up from Wednesday’s 50%, but significantly lower than the 73% seen a week ago. Here are the key economic data points moving the markets on Thursday: Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected During the week ending Jan. 18, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits saw a substantial decrease of 16,000, reaching 187,000. This figure represents the lowest level since September 2022, and it significantly came below market expectations of 207,000, as per data reported by the Labor Department. Furthermore, continuing claims ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jan 18, 2024

December Jobs Report: Do Economists See Cooling Signals Or Steady Growth?The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December jobs report released Friday generated varied reactions from economists and financial analysts. With non-farm payrolls (NFPs) growing by 216,000 and surpassing expectations, wage growth advancing more than expected and unemployment holding steady at 3.7%, experts are decoding what this means for the economy and the markets. Chart: Pace Of Job Creation Surges In December 2023 Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist, Bank of America: Gapen observed a “gradual cooling in the labor market,” suggesting a trend towards a soft landing rather than a recession. He noted, “Nonfarm payroll employment beat expectations with a 216,00 increase. However, there were net downward revisions of 71,000 to the prior two months.” Gapen’s analysis pointed to a decrease in the three-month average change in nonfarm payrolls, indicating a slowdown ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jan 5, 2024

Interest Rates Unlikely To Fall Soon: Bond Guru Projects 10-Year Yields Spiking To 5.5% In 2024In a recent interview with CNBC, top Wall Street analyst Jim Bianco projected the 10-year Treasury yield to rise up to 5.5% in 2024, reaching the highest level since May 2001. The president and macro strategist of Bianco Research, expected a more hawkish Fed approach and an unexpectedly resilient economy this year. Decoding Fed’s Minutes And Economic Outlook Bianco’s analysis of the recent Federal Reserve minutes revealed a less aggressive stance on rate cuts than many anticipated. “The minutes came in a little bit more hawkish … suggesting that the Fed might be a little, if I could use the word, stickier, in cutting rates,” he explained. Bianco also raised concerns about inflation, projecting it to stabilize around 3%, notably above the Fed’s 2% target. He underscored the urgency with which the Fed was tackling inflation, emphasizing that even a 3% rate was too high for their comfort. Bianco saw an economy that defies the common narrative of a “soft landing.” He confidently stated, “I don’t think we’re having a soft landing … the economy is doing what it does 90% of the time. It is continuing to expand.” He argued the current economic expansion could comfortably withstand higher interest rates. Bianco expected a scenario where ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jan 4, 2024

Soft Landing? Don't Bet On It Just Yet: Fed's Barkin Indicates Further Rate Hikes PossibleRichmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin delivered a mixed message about the U.S. economy in his recent speech, signaling a cautious optimism regarding the potential for a so-called “soft landing,” while also not ruling out additional rate hikes. “A soft landing is increasingly conceivable, but in no way inevitable,” Barkin said, regarding the economy slowing enough to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This scenario involves reducing inflation, which spiked post-pandemic, without triggering a significant economic setback. The economy has shown resilience post-pandemic, but Barkin’s words remind us that we’re not out of the woods yet. The balance between controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth is delicate, and the path ahead is still unpredictable. According to Barkin, ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jan 3, 2024

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