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Oil Prices Near 3-Month High At $84 As US Travel Demand Hits Record, Hurricane Season Impacts SupplyOil prices are experiencing their fourth consecutive week of gains, driven by seasonal demand and record-breaking U.S. travel for the Fourth of July holiday. Additionally, crude has faced supply issues related to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions from hurricanes in the Caribbean. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude prices, as tracked by the U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), soared above $84 a barrel on Tuesday, setting the stage to close at their highest level since April 16. Record Travel Expected For Independence Day Holiday The American Automobile Association (AAA) projects 70.9 million travelers will journey 50 miles or more during Independence Day week, a 5% increase over 2023 and 8% over 2019. "With summer vacations in full swing and the flexibility of remote work, more Americans are taking extended trips around Independence Day," said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel. "We anticipate this July 4 week will be the busiest ever, with an additional 5.7 million people traveling compared ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jul 2, 2024

Huge Post Debate Uncertainty For Investors, New Data On Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge And Personal SpendingTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. PCE Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market is attempting to break to a new high. RSI on the chart shows that there is a technical set up for the stock market to go higher. The chart shows that the stock market is significantly above the support zone. This indicates that buying here does not have a favorable risk reward ratio. The chart shows low volume. This indicates a lack of conviction. We previously shared with you that economists have become good at predicting the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge PCE. PCE data came as expected. Here are the details: Headline PCE came at 0.0% vs. 0.0% consensus. Core PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus. The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending. Personal spending dropped. This is inline with the other data of the consumer pulling back that we have been sharing with you. Here are the details: Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Personal income came at 0.5% vs. 0.4% consensus. First and foremost, The Arora Report is politically agnostic. The Arora Report strives to be objective and rigorously analytical to help investors. To make money in the markets, it is important for investors to separate their political views from investing. Here are the key points: The presidential debate has thrown huge uncertainty in the American economy and U.S.’s international standing. Prudent investors should wait for the air to clear post debate. There will be winning and losing investments from the election. Depending upon what happens over the coming days, changes may be made in the portfolios. In The Arora Report analysis, if nothing changes, the Magnificent Seven stocks,other mega cap stocks, and fossil fuel energy stocks are the winners post debate; ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 28, 2024

Who Doesn't Feel Comfortable Owning Apple? Nvidia's Upside Volatility.Alex King from Cestrian Capital Research and Growth Investor Pro on the tech sector and bull market. Nvidia's upside volatility. Money coming into Apple.Seeking Alpha · Jun 27, 2024

Extremely Positive Sentiment On Lower PPI, Higher Jobless Claims, Musk Claim, And Broadcom SplitTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Lower PPI Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market took another leg up on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data yesterday. Please click here for details. The chart shows that after the Fed announcement, the stock market pulled back as the dot plot was more hawkish than expected. Please see click here for details. The chart shows that the stock market first jumped this morning on release of Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims data. RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is very overbought. Overbought markets tend to be susceptible to a pullback. The chart shows that the volume was higher yesterday than other recent low volume days, but the volume was not high enough considering the strong rally. This is a negative. Inflation at the producer level came cooler than expected. Here are the details: Headline PPI came at -0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus. Core PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.3% consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, a big part of the drop in PPI is because of the following reasons: We have been sharing with readers that producer prices in China have been dropping. Since the U.S. imports a large amount of goods from China, China is exporting disflation to the U.S. Oil prices have fallen due to concerns about a weak economy. Oil contributes significantly to PPI. Weekly initial claims came at 242K vs. 224K consensus. This indicates that the jobs picture is weakening. Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories. In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions. Please click here to see how this is achieved. The sentiment is extremely positive in addition to CPI, PPI, and jobless claims. The following are adding to the positive sentiment. Elon Musk is claiming that shareholders voted for his pay package. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock is jumping about 7% as of this writing in the premarket. Semiconductor company Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ: Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 13, 2024

Stock Market Celebrates Cooler CPI, Oil Glut By The End Of The DecadeTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Cooler CPI Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows the stock market taking another leg up on cooler Consumer Price Index (CPI). The chart shows the volume has been low, indicating lack of conviction. In theory, the volume today should be significantly higher. The Arora Report will be carefully watching the volume. RSI on the chart shows the market is overbought, making it susceptible to a pullback. CPI data came cooler than expected. Here are the details: Headline CPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus. This is the lowest since 2020. Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of a rate cut in September is now 55%, and the probability of a rate cut in December is 90%. The Fed’s rate decision will be announced at 2pm ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET. At The Arora Report, we will be carefully watching the dot plot. The dot plot indicates interest rate projections of FOMC members. In the early trade, the buying in AI stocks is especially aggressive. As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report. China Inflation in China is also falling both at the producer level and the consumer level. Since the U.S. is a major importer of Chinese goods, lower producer level inflation in China also helps lower inflation in the U.S. Here are the details: China’s CPI came at 0.1% month-over-month vs. 0.0% consensus and 0.3% year-over-year vs. 0.4% consensus. China’s PPI came at -1.4% year-over-year vs. -1.5% consensus. Magnificent Seven Money Flows In the early trade, money ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 12, 2024

UN Adds Israel, Hamas To Child Rights Violations List; Netanyahu To Address US Congress In JulyUnited Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has added Israel’s military to a global list of offenders for committing violations against children in 2023. A diplomatic source told Reuters that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will also be added to the list. Russia, the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, Afghanistan, Iraq, Myanmar, Somalia, Syria and Yemen are also on the list. The global list is part of a report on children and armed conflict. Guterres is scheduled to submit the list to the U.N. Security Council on June 14. This designation includes violations such as killing, maiming, sexual abuse, recruitment and attacking schools and hospitals. Israel’s U.N. envoy, Gilad Erdan, condemned the decision as “shameful. Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned that decision will complicate Israel’s relations with the U.N. Netanyahu’s Upcoming US Visit Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he would address the U.S. Congress on July 24. During his visit ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 7, 2024

Smart Money Trims Stocks On Strong Jobs Report - Raise Hedges, China Stops Buying GoldTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Strong Jobs Report Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: Cross currents in the stock market are increasing. Investors may need to handle increasing volatility due to cross currents. The best way to handle increasing volatility is to follow the protection band. Hedges are being raised. The chart shows that after hitting the low band of the support zone, the stock market made a new high. This is technically a bullish pattern. The chart shows yesterday was the lowest volume day in a long time. This indicates a lack of conviction. RSI on the chart shows that the stock market can go either way. The chart shows that the stock market is selling off in the early trade on a stronger than expected jobs report. Here are the details of the jobs report: Nonfarm payrolls came at 272K vs. 186K consensus. Nonfarm private payrolls came at 229K vs. 168K consensus. Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus. Average work week came at 34.3 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus. Unemployment rate came at 4.0% vs. 3.9% consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, the jobs report, when taken in totality along with the recent weak data from JOLTS and jobless claims, precludes the Fed from cutting rates at this time if the Fed is truly data dependent. Momo gurus have been persuading their followers to buy stocks ahead of the jobs report because they claimed they knew the jobs report would be very weak. Momo gurus are wrong again. However, momo gurus have some ammunition for a new narrative to persuade their followers to continue to buy stocks. In The Arora Report analysis, here is the ammunition momo gurus can use: The unemployment rate rose. Household survey data was weaker. Much of the job creation was in government and service industries such as hospitality. Smart money is trimming stocks on the strong jobs report. Keep in mind that smart money owns very large stock positions. They just trim into the strength. In contrast, many in the ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 7, 2024

Israel-Hamas Conflict: School Airstrike Escalates Tensions, NAACP Calls For Halt To US Weapons DeliveriesIsraeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched an airstrike on a Gaza school Thursday, stating that the attack targeted up to 30 Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters. However, a Hamas official reported that 40 people, including women and children, sheltering at a UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) site, were killed. A CNN analysis identified fragments of U.S.-made GBU-39 small diameter bombs at the scene. A similar identification emerged following an IDF strike in Rafah on May 26. The Israeli military confirmed the strike, stating it targeted a Hamas compound within the school. Military spokesperson Lt. Col. Peter Lerner said the military was not “aware of any civilian casualties.” Lerner added that 20 to 30 militants, including those involved in the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, were using the school to plan and execute attacks. CNN indicated that it had not independently verified these statements. Footage from the scene ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 6, 2024

Oil Prices Drop For Fifth Straight Session, Hit 4-Month Low On Growth Concerns, 'Bearish' OPEC+ MeetingCrude oil prices declined for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude, tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), closing at $73.32. This marks the lowest level since Feb. 7, 2024. The recent decline in oil prices is primarily due to increasing concerns about economic growth and an OPEC+ decision on supply that was less restrictive than anticipated. The U.S. has reported a series of weaker-than-expected economic data over the past week, raising fears of a potential economic slowdown in the second quarter, which is perceived as a negative factor for oil demand. Last week, the second estimate for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 4, 2024

Biden Criticizes Netanyahu For Standstill On Cease-Fire Efforts As Tensions Escalate With LebanonU.S. President Joe Biden said there was “every reason” to believe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was prolonging the Gaza conflict for political gain. In an exclusive interview with Time magazine published Tuesday, Biden criticized Netanyahu and expressed uncertainty about whether Israel had committed war crimes. Biden’s comments come just days after he outlined a cease-fire deal, urging Israel and Hamas to accept the terms and bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Ceasefire Proposal In Limbo Last Friday, Biden proposed a six-week ceasefire during which Israeli forces would withdraw from all populated areas of Gaza. Some hostages, including the elderly and women, would be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The subsequent phases of the plan focus on a complete Israeli troop withdrawal and a permanent ceasefire — something Hamas seemingly supports. “We cannot agree to an agreement that doesn’t secure, guarantee, and ensure ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 4, 2024

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