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ETF Strategies for Second Half of 2024How the presidential election, at least one Fed rate cut, the holiday season and the AI rally will influence ETF performance in second half of the year.Zacks Investment Research · Jul 1, 2024

Huge Post Debate Uncertainty For Investors, New Data On Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge And Personal SpendingTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. PCE Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market is attempting to break to a new high. RSI on the chart shows that there is a technical set up for the stock market to go higher. The chart shows that the stock market is significantly above the support zone. This indicates that buying here does not have a favorable risk reward ratio. The chart shows low volume. This indicates a lack of conviction. We previously shared with you that economists have become good at predicting the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge PCE. PCE data came as expected. Here are the details: Headline PCE came at 0.0% vs. 0.0% consensus. Core PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus. The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending. Personal spending dropped. This is inline with the other data of the consumer pulling back that we have been sharing with you. Here are the details: Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Personal income came at 0.5% vs. 0.4% consensus. First and foremost, The Arora Report is politically agnostic. The Arora Report strives to be objective and rigorously analytical to help investors. To make money in the markets, it is important for investors to separate their political views from investing. Here are the key points: The presidential debate has thrown huge uncertainty in the American economy and U.S.’s international standing. Prudent investors should wait for the air to clear post debate. There will be winning and losing investments from the election. Depending upon what happens over the coming days, changes may be made in the portfolios. In The Arora Report analysis, if nothing changes, the Magnificent Seven stocks,other mega cap stocks, and fossil fuel energy stocks are the winners post debate; ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 28, 2024

Last Inflation Report Pushed Markets To Record Highs In June: Could It Happen Again Friday? 5 ETFs To WatchThe inflation report that’s closely watched by the Federal Reserve — the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index — was published on May 31 for April data and sparked a fresh market rally in June, pushing major indexes to their all-time highs. As traders brace for Friday’s PCE price index report for May, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, many are wondering whether new favorable inflation data could bring the bulls back to Wall Street after some mixed performance in recent sessions. May’s PCE Report: What Do Economists Expect? The PCE price index is expected to decrease from 2.7% year-on-year in April to 2.6% in May, according to economist consensus data gathered by Econoday. On a monthly basis, the index is forecasted to rise at a 0.1% rate, down from the previous 0.3%. The core PCE price index is projected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year in May, potentially reaching its lowest level since March 2021. Monthly, it is expected to slow from 0.2% to 0.1%. If PCE inflation falls as expected or even more, it could bolster investor expectations of rate cuts, potentially ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 27, 2024

Stocks Show Modest Gains Ahead Of Fed's Inflation Report; Chipmakers Struggle, While Gold And Bitcoin Rebound: What's Driving Markets Thursday?Wall Street experienced a subdued trading day on Thursday, as traders likely chose to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of Friday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. In regulatory news, U.S. banks successfully passed the Federal Reserve’s 2024 stress tests. The results demonstrated that all analyzed institutions could maintain minimum capital requirements even in the face of a severe economic shock. Notably, regional banks, as tracked by the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE), performed relatively better overall compared to their larger counterparts. As of midday trading in New York, major indices showed marginal gains, with small caps outperforming large-cap indices. The semiconductor sector continued to face headwinds, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) down 0.7%, eyeing its fifth negative session in the last six. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) declined almost 2%. Treasury yields moved lower, reflecting increased demand for bonds ahead of the key inflation report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell by 4 ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 27, 2024

Gold Set to Break $3,000? ETFs to ConsiderLook into gold ETFs as rising geopolitical tensions, increasing probability of an interest rate cut and central banks increasing their purchase of the precious metal drive the rally behind gold prices and demand.Zacks Investment Research · Jun 25, 2024

Gold Prices Set To Climb To $3,000 On Fed Rate Cuts, Geopolitical Tensions, Bank of America SaysGold prices could skyrocket to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12 to 18 months, according to Bank of America’s latest analysis. Michael Widmer, a commodity strategist at the bank, suggests that a combination of factors — increasing investment demand, geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases — could boost the yellow metal’s appeal among investors. Resurgence In Investor Demand In 2023, investor demand for gold saw a notable resurgence, the investment bank noted, with private bar hoarding and central bank acquisitions accounting for 49% and 43% of purchases, respectively. However, physically backed ETFs, such as the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), have experienced a decline in assets under management, which has tempered overall demand growth. “A pick-up in LBMA clearing volumes would be an encouraging signal of rising non-commercial demand for gold, and would be consistent with higher prices needed to balance out the market,” Widmer said. Chart: Bank of America Eyes A Near 30% Rally In Gold Prices Within 12-18 MonthsBenzinga · Jun 24, 2024

US Private Sector Activity Exceeds Estimates, Fastest Growth In 2 Years – Will The Fed Welcome The Data?The latest surveys by S&P Global reveal an American economy firing on all cylinders in June, with robust activity and cooling inflation creating a goldilocks environment, giving the Fed more leeway to cut interest rates. S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) For June: Key Highlights The Composite PMI rose to 54.6 in June, up by 0.1 percentage points from May and marking the highest level since April 2022. The Services PMI rose from 54.8 in May to 55.1, topping estimates of 53.7 as collected by Econoday. It marks the strongest services sector expansion in two years. Services activity has now risen for 17 consecutive months. The Manufacturing PMI also improved in its growth path, rising from 51.3 to 51.7, beating forecasts of 51. S&P Global highlighted an improved business confidence for the year ahead, notably in ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 21, 2024

Bank Of America Predicts First Rate Cut In December: 'Higher-For-Longer Flavor'Bank of America’s latest economic outlook for the U.S. paints a complex picture of steady but gradually fading economic growth, persistent inflation and a delayed start to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. The bank’s economist, Michael Gapen, emphasizes a “higher-for-longer” rates environment, with the first rate cut expected only in December. Bank of America expects the factors that have driven the U.S. economy’s outperformance in recent years — such as robust labor force growth, employment catch-up effects, supportive fiscal policies and increased domestic manufacturing investment — to gradually fade. The bank projects a slowdown in real GDP growth from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Modestly restrictive financial conditions, tighter bank lending standards, diminishing wealth effects and a strong dollar are seen as significant headwinds. Persistent Inflation Concerns Inflation is expected to decelerate but remain sticky, particularly in the services sector. Gapen notes that while the rebound in the labor force exerts positive supply effects on inflation, it also leads to greater employment, income, and spending, which maintain demand pressures. Core PCE ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 21, 2024

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Dip From Record Highs As Investors Take Chipmaker Profits; Energy Sector Rebounds, Yields Rise: What's Driving Markets Thursday?After the Juneteenth holiday break, Wall Street reopened with a cautious tone, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices declined after hitting all-time highs around midday trading in New York. This decline was driven by profit-taking in chipmaker stocks and rising Treasury yields, which dampened risk sentiment. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) fell by 2.4%, marking its worst session since May 1, after reaching technically “overbought” levels earlier in the week. Oil prices surged above $81 a barrel, aiming for the highest close since late April. This was spurred by larger-than-expected drops in U.S. inventories last week, fueling a rally in oil-related companies. Small caps also softened, whereas blue chips saw a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperforming other major indices with a 0.4% gain. Long-dated Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.27%, following mixed economic data released earlier in the day. Jobless claims slightly increased more than expected last week, and a manufacturing activity gauge in the Philadelphia region fell short of estimates, reaching its lowest level in five months. Additionally, housing ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 20, 2024

Important Lessons Learned From My Latest Investing MistakesInvesting in dividend stocks has been exceptionally rewarding for me. Check out the important lessons that my latest investing mistakes have taught me.Seeking Alpha · Jun 18, 2024

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