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DE

DESKVanEck Office and Commercial REIT ETF

DESK

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Volume

403

Yield

4.89%

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Goldman Sachs: The Worst For Commercial Real Estate Market May Be Over, But 'It Is Likely To Take Longer To Inflect Positive'The worst may be over for commercial real estate (CRE) assets, yet a full recovery is still some distance away, according to a recent report from Goldman Sachs. The analysis, shared by analyst Caitlin Burrows on Friday, indicates that while the annual decline in CRE transaction volumes has likely bottomed out, significant challenges remain for a meaningful country-wide rebound, though some cities are exceptions. CRE Market Has Bottomed, According To Goldman Sachs’s Burrows Goldman Sachs notes that leading indicators suggest the CRE market has seen the worst of its downturn. Drawing comparisons to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Burrows explained that it took eight quarters of year-over-year declines in transaction volumes before the market saw a positive shift in the ninth quarter. Currently, the CRE market has experienced eight quarters of declines, starting from the third quarter of 2022. There have been some optimistic signs from leading indicators. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the OECD's U.S. Composite Business Confidence Index, which leads U.S. office leasing volumes by ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jun 28, 2024

10 Real Estate Stocks Move On Thursday: Fed Rate Cut Possibility Sparks Rally For Troubled SectorThe Federal Reserve’s indication of upcoming interest rate cuts injected optimism into the real estate sector, particularly benefiting stocks under pressure due to exposure to the office industry or elevated debt levels. A Shift Towards Speculation Thursday’s session suggests the rally has been more pronounced among real estate companies with higher debt levels This shift may signify a growing investor inclination towards speculative stocks within the real estate sector, banking on the premise that forthcoming rate cuts could provide a much-needed respite for real estate investment trusts (REITs) grappling with significant debt burdens. The Fed’s March dot plot hints at three rate cuts in 2024, with a further three anticipated the following year. This strategic direction is coupled with an upgraded growth ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Mar 21, 2024

Commercial Real Estate Grapples With $1 Trillion Refinancing Tsunami In 2024, Over $200 Billion In Office DebtA staggering $929 billion of commercial real estate (CRE) mortgages are on the brink of maturity in 2024, representing nearly a fifth of the sector’s overall $4.7 trillion debt, data from Goldman Sachs revealed Wednesday. This critical insight comes at a time when the CRE debt market grapples with double-digit interest rates, exceeding 12%, complicating refinancing efforts for industry players. The big question that is looming: Will the CRE sector weather the storm, or will the ticking debt time bomb detonate widespread financial spillovers? 2023: A Year of Dwindling Transactions and Rising Delinquencies The U.S. CRE market’s transaction volumes have plummeted, with January witnessing an 11% year-over-year descent, culminating in an approximate $23 billion. This is merely the tip of the iceberg. The full-year data for 2023 paints a dire picture, showcasing a staggering 50% tumble from the previous year. The industries hit hardest? Office and industrial leasing, shrinking by 25% and 28% year-over-year, respectively. “U.S. CRE transaction market continues to be muted, primarily driven by elevated interest rates, limited ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Feb 28, 2024

Office Conversion Crisis: Prices Must Be Cut In Half For Residential Shift, Says Goldman SachsThe listing prices of struggling office properties remain prohibitively high and must fall by nearly half to make their conversion into multifamily homes economically viable. Those stark findings came from Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Vinay Viswanathan, who shed light on the deep impact of the shift toward hybrid work models, which has significantly reduced the demand for office space. “The office vacancy rate increased by 4pp over the last three years to 13.5%, the highest level since 2000,” Goldman Sachs noted, forecasting a further increase to 18% over the next decade. This structural decline has raised questions about the future of these spaces, especially in light of the ongoing residential housing shortage in the U.S. A Closer Look At Office Viability Goldman Sachs’ analysis identifies approximately 4% of U.S. office ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Feb 27, 2024

'The Greatest Real Estate Crisis Since The Financial Crisis': Office Property Troubles Spread To EuropeMunich-based Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG, or PBB, experienced a dramatic drop in its market value this week after it decided to ramp up its risk provisioning for potential losses in its loan portfolio tied to commercial properties. The move reflects growing concerns over the sector’s exposure and ongoing upheaval within the regional banking system. Shares of PBB, which specializes in commercial real estate finance with over 150 years of history, were down by more than 16.6% at last check Wednesday, Feb. 7. Its subordinated bonds mirror this sharp decline. The company’s risk provisioning for the year 2023 is expected to total between €210 million and €215 million. This substantial financial set-aside is in response to the “persistent weakness of the real estate markets,” according to the bank. ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Feb 7, 2024

Yellen Expresses Concerns Over Commercial Real Estate, Stablecoin Risks, Praises US Economic Strength: 'Headed In Right Direction'In a direct address to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen raised significant concerns regarding the commercial real estate sector and outlined the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s focused attention on the risks associated with digital assets, including stablecoins and crypto asset volatility. Despite these concerns, Yellen offered a broadly optimistic view of the U.S. economy’s trajectory, affirming its strong growth and the resilience of the labor market. “I absolutely believe it’s headed in the right direction,” Yellen said, adding that “our growth is extremely strong, the labor market is at least as strong as it was prior to the pandemic.” Yellen remarked on the unprecedented success in maintaining unemployment rates below 4% for the longest period in 50 years. Digital Assets: Yellen Calls for Regulatory Action On the topic of digital assets, Yellen reiterated her view on the necessity for enhanced regulatory frameworks to manage the risks posed by the burgeoning sector. She advocated for “the ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Feb 6, 2024

Office Market Experiencing 'An Existential Crisis'The office real estate sector is facing significant challenges, including a high vacancy rate and oversupply. Explore more details here.Seeking Alpha · Feb 3, 2024

Half A Trillion Dollars: Office Real Estate Owners Are About To Face Huge Debt Payment, New Data Shows 2024 Is A Critical YearThe office real estate market has entered a challenging year, grappling with significant challenges represented by disruptive industry trends and upcoming financial maturities. As highlighted by recent data from Trepp, an astounding $2.77 trillion of commercial real estate debt, accounting for half of all outstanding commercial real estate debt, is set to mature between 2023 and 2027. Of this, nearly $500 billion is due in 2024 alone. This looming maturity cliff, coupled with declining property values and high-for-longer interest rates, presents a daunting challenge for both lenders and borrowers in refinancing this volume of debt. Commercial Mortgage Maturities by Lender Type Year Total Due ($ Billion) Banks ($ Billion) CMBS ($ Billion) Life Cos ($ Billion) GSE ($ Billion) Other ($ Billion) 2023 $541.2 $270.4 $107.7 $42.5 $58.4 $62.2 2024 $544.3 $277.2 $81.7 $46.7 $68.9 $69.7 2025 $533.2 $283.1 $53.3 $49.1 $82.3 $65.3 2026 $561.4 $298.3 $40.7 $52.3 $102.3 $67.9 2027 $602.0 $313.8 $40.7 $55.9 $120.4 $71.2 2028 $565.9 $293.3 $35.7 $57.1 $113.3 $66.5 Total (2024-2028) $2,806.7 $1,465.8 $252.1 $261.1 $487.2 $340.5 Source: Trepp Inc., based on Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Data Office Real Estate Industry Confronts Major Hurdles Dr. Stephen Buschbom, the research director at Trepp, stated in a recent note that higher interest rates and tighter liquidity created significant challenges for new transactions and refinancing maturing loans. He compared the current situation in the commercial real estate (CRE) and CRE debt markets to past economic cycles. “Maybe the office delinquency rate hits 7%, and I think if you're talking about urban office, non-defeased, that still is a reality,” he wrote. Buschbom noted an increase in ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jan 18, 2024

Fed Beige Book Reveals Holiday Cheer For US Economy: Tourism Spending Runs Hot, But Real Estate Worries SurfaceThe Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, a collection of economic information collected by each Federal Reserve District through Jan. 8 paints a picture of steady growth for the U.S. economy, with consumers displaying notable demand resilience during the holiday season. “Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays,” according to the Fed Beige book released Wednesday. This trend notably exceeded expectations in three districts including New York, which “noted strong holiday spending on apparel, toys, and sporting goods.” Holiday season trends boosted air freight volumes linked to e-commerce in Richmond, while Philadelphia experienced a rise in credit card lending. Additionally, increased leisure travel was a common theme across several districts, with a notable mention of New York City being exceptionally lively, as described by a tourism industry contact. The St. Louis district reported strong ...Full story available on Benzinga.comBenzinga · Jan 17, 2024

5 Market-Beating Sector ETFs of DecemberWall Street sizzled in December, with all three major indices touching a series of new highs.Zacks Investment Research · Dec 29, 2023

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